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Red171
314641.3
57151.8
318233.4
Blue135
23730.5
199132.6
514251.3
53%Model gave it47%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions15214850100200250171135

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+2Auto
+36Teleop
+38Endgame
+36Fouls
AutonomousRed +2
0Leave6
5Coral scored#3
25Coral points17
25Total auto23
TeleoperatedRed +34
29Coral scored#18
106Coral points66
2Processor algae#3
3Net algae#3
12Processor points18
12Net points12
24Algae points30
130Total teleop96
Reef
11L4#9
11L3#4
8L2#4
4L1 · trough#4
39Game pieces#27
BargeRed +2
16Cage & park14
16Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +36
0Foul points2
171Total score135

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
571
#5
51.81.6
49.451.0
Auto10.5
Teleop40.5
End0.9
red by 0.5
5142
#22
51.30.6
52.051.3
Auto12.7
Teleop30.7
End7.8
Second
41.31.6
39.040.6
Auto6.8
Teleop26.7
End7.8
red by 8.6
1991
#17
32.60.6
32.331.7
Auto5.3
Teleop24.8
End2.5
Third
3182
#15
33.41.6
34.235.8
Auto4.8
Teleop24.8
End3.8
red by 2.9
237
#20
30.50.6
31.330.7
Auto5.8
Teleop23.5
End1.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
84%Auto oddsMissed77%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
59%Coral oddsEarned42%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
49%Barge oddsEarned45%Barge oddsEarned