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Red83
363423.0
633324.8
365420.5
Blue81
17821.3
346442.0
135027.7
36%Model gave it64%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions7893501508381

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
Teleop+12
+2Endgame
+2Fouls
AutonomousBlue +3
6Leave0
0Coral scored#2
0Coral points9
6Total auto9
TeleoperatedBlue +9
14Coral scored#12
51Coral points44
1Processor algae#1
1Net algae#5
6Processor points6
4Net points20
10Algae points26
61Total teleop70
Reef
4L4#6
4L3#3
3L2#3
3L1 · trough#2
16Game pieces#20
BargeRed +14
16Cage & park2
16Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +2
0Foul points0
83Total score81

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
6333
#19
24.81.0
25.226.2
Auto2.6
Teleop22.0
End0.2
blue by 17.2
3464
#15
42.00.0
38.138.2
Auto4.8
Teleop33.8
End3.4
Second
3634
#25
23.01.0
23.024.0
Auto4.5
Teleop11.2
End7.3
blue by 4.7
1350
#26
27.70.0
20.220.2
Auto5.4
Teleop18.8
End3.4
Third
3654
#21
20.51.0
20.421.4
Auto3.5
Teleop14.9
End2.1
blue by 0.9
178
#29
21.30.0
22.222.2
Auto5.2
Teleop14.3
End1.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
63%Auto oddsMissed49%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
53%Barge oddsEarned27%Barge oddsMissed