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Red72
217026.3
23643.3
109926.5
Blue81
55829.8
17821.3
22830.3
64%Model gave it36%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions105934060801201401601807281

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+2
Teleop+9
Endgame+11
Fouls+9
AutonomousBlue +2
9Leave0
1Coral scored#3
4Coral points15
13Total auto15
TeleoperatedBlue +7
10Coral scored#8
37Coral points30
1Processor algae#2
0Net algae#2
6Processor points12
0Net points8
6Algae points20
43Total teleop50
Reef
5L4#4
3L3#3
1L2#2
2L1 · trough#2
12Game pieces#15
BargeBlue +2
14Cage & park16
14Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +9
2Foul points0
72Total score81

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
236
#8
43.31.3
41.440.1
Auto7.0
Teleop28.3
End7.9
red by 13.0
228
#7
30.30.1
33.933.8
Auto6.2
Teleop19.1
End5.0
Second
1099
#30
26.51.3
23.322.0
Auto3.9
Teleop19.5
End3.1
blue by 3.3
558
#5
29.80.1
27.026.8
Auto4.1
Teleop21.3
End4.3
Third
2170
#16
26.31.3
25.023.6
Auto4.9
Teleop17.8
End3.6
red by 5.0
178
#29
21.30.1
22.222.1
Auto5.2
Teleop14.3
End1.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
70%Auto oddsMissed56%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed9%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
50%Barge oddsEarned45%Barge oddsEarned