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Red163
314637.0
888932.3
55829.8
Blue154
1013326.6
971024.6
217026.3
79%Model gave it21%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1138350100150163154

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
Teleop+5
+15Endgame
+9Fouls
AutonomousBlue +3
0Leave3
3Coral scored#3
16Coral points16
16Total auto19
TeleoperatedBlue +2
28Coral scored#26
99Coral points95
2Processor algae#3
3Net algae#3
12Processor points18
12Net points12
24Algae points30
123Total teleop125
Reef
15L4#10
8L3#8
4L2#7
4L1 · trough#4
36Game pieces#35
BargeRed +20
24Cage & park4
24Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +9
0Foul points6
163Total score154

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3146
#14
37.01.9
34.436.2
Auto5.0
Teleop25.4
End6.6
red by 10.4
26.62.4
24.226.6
Auto4.5
Teleop19.7
End2.4
Second
8889
#13
32.31.9
30.332.2
Auto5.4
Teleop26.1
End0.7
red by 5.9
2170
#16
26.32.4
23.926.3
Auto4.9
Teleop17.8
End3.6
Third
558
#5
29.81.9
27.929.8
Auto4.1
Teleop21.3
End4.3
red by 5.1
9710
#28
24.62.4
22.224.6
Auto6.4
Teleop17.3
End0.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
78%Auto oddsEarned54%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
9%Coral oddsMissed8%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
49%Barge oddsEarned34%Barge oddsMissed