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Red154
19565.5
997810.3
1041327.1
Blue148
169963.2
199116.7
971020.4
55%Model gave it45%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1141116080100120140160154148

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+14Teleop
+6Endgame
+6Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
9Leave9
3Coral scored#1
14Coral points7
23Total auto16
TeleoperatedRed +7
27Coral scored#18
97Coral points66
2Processor algae#2
4Net algae#10
12Processor points12
16Net points40
28Algae points52
125Total teleop118
Reef
10L4#7
10L3#6
6L2#4
4L1 · trough#2
36Game pieces#31
BargeBlue +8
6Cage & park14
6Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +6
0Foul points0
154Total score148

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
195
#2
65.53.0
62.765.6
Auto17.7
Teleop41.4
End6.4
red by 2.3
1699
#16
63.22.2
61.463.6
Auto10.2
Teleop46.2
End6.9
Second
27.13.0
21.024.0
Auto2.9
Teleop20.2
End4.1
red by 6.8
9710
#10
20.42.2
18.821.0
Auto5.7
Teleop12.6
End2.0
Third
9978
#11
10.35.0
7.112.1
Auto1.6
Teleop9.3
End-0.8
blue by 6.5
1991
#24
16.72.2
13.615.8
Auto3.2
Teleop12.5
End1.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
55%Auto oddsEarned73%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
8%Coral oddsMissed19%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
60%Barge oddsMissed30%Barge oddsEarned