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Red34
23713.2
99994.0
632868.2
Blue59
808528.8
715325.9
199116.7
75%Model gave it25%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions125810501001502002503459

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+4
Teleop+23
Endgame+25
Fouls+25
AutonomousBlue +4
0Leave9
1Coral scored#0
6Coral points1
6Total auto10
TeleoperatedBlue +19
3Coral scored#6
12Coral points21
0Processor algae#1
0Net algae#1
0Processor points6
0Net points4
0Algae points10
12Total teleop31
Reef
1L4#2
2L3#2
1L2#1
0L1 · trough#1
4Game pieces#8
BargeBlue +2
14Cage & park16
14Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +25
2Foul points2
34Total score59

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
6328
#18
68.24.2
69.064.8
Auto15.5
Teleop45.2
End7.4
red by 39.4
8085
#15
28.81.2
31.330.1
Auto5.1
Teleop21.4
End2.3
Second
237
#27
13.24.2
17.112.9
Auto5.6
Teleop7.1
End0.5
blue by 12.6
7153
#20
25.91.2
28.927.7
Auto7.4
Teleop12.3
End6.2
Third
9999
#28
4.07.0
8.81.8
Auto0.6
Teleop3.4
End-0.1
blue by 12.8
1991
#24
16.71.2
15.013.8
Auto3.2
Teleop12.5
End1.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
92%Auto oddsMissed52%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
28%Coral oddsMissed17%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
45%Barge oddsEarned23%Barge oddsEarned