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Red177
173022.2
642468.1
198777.9
Blue164
511918.5
110857.4
580179.8
59%Model gave it41%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions188169050100150250300350177164

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+4
Teleop+3
+7Endgame
+13Fouls
AutonomousBlue +4
6Leave3
8Coral scored#10
41Coral points48
47Total auto51
TeleoperatedRed +1
20Coral scored#20
72Coral points71
3Processor algae#3
2Net algae#2
18Processor points18
8Net points8
26Algae points26
98Total teleop97
Reef
12L4#13
8L3#6
4L2#4
4L1 · trough#7
33Game pieces#35
BargeRed +10
26Cage & park16
26Total endgame16
Penalties & totalRed +13
6Foul points0
177Total score164

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
77.90.1
77.277.4
Auto18.5
Teleop49.1
End10.4
blue by 1.9
79.80.2
79.479.6
Auto18.7
Teleop53.1
End8.0
Second
68.10.1
67.467.5
Auto16.8
Teleop41.2
End10.1
red by 10.7
57.40.2
57.057.2
Auto10.8
Teleop37.1
End9.5
Third
1730
#42
22.20.1
21.521.7
Auto4.2
Teleop15.2
End2.8
red by 3.8
5119
#30
18.50.2
18.118.3
Auto4.8
Teleop11.2
End2.5