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Red198
173022.2
642468.1
198777.9
Blue162
511918.5
110857.4
580179.8
60%Model gave it40%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions187169050100150250300350198162

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+17Auto
+30Teleop
+30Endgame
+36Fouls
AutonomousRed +17
9Leave0
8Coral scored#6
38Coral points30
47Total auto30
TeleoperatedRed +13
23Coral scored#21
81Coral points74
3Processor algae#2
5Net algae#5
18Processor points12
20Net points20
38Algae points32
119Total teleop106
Reef
12L4#7
9L3#10
5L2#6
5L1 · trough#4
39Game pieces#34
Bargelevel
26Cage & park26
26Total endgame26
Penalties & totalRed +36
6Foul points0
198Total score162

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
77.90.6
77.477.9
Auto18.5
Teleop49.1
End10.4
blue by 1.9
79.80.2
79.679.8
Auto18.7
Teleop53.1
End8.0
Second
68.10.6
67.568.1
Auto16.8
Teleop41.2
End10.1
red by 10.7
57.40.2
57.257.4
Auto10.8
Teleop37.1
End9.5
Third
1730
#42
22.20.6
21.722.2
Auto4.2
Teleop15.2
End2.8
red by 3.8
5119
#30
18.50.2
18.318.5
Auto4.8
Teleop11.2
End2.5