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Red99
526823.0
328443.9
545433.3
Blue45
181031.0
684313.0
941042.0
48%Model gave it52%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions10310560801201409945

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+64Teleop
+54Endgame
+54Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
3Leave3
3Coral scored#1
13Coral points6
16Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +57
10Coral scored#3
37Coral points12
4Processor algae#0
4Net algae#2
24Processor points0
16Net points8
40Algae points8
77Total teleop20
Reef
6L4#1
4L3#1
2L2#1
1L1 · trough#1
21Game pieces#6
BargeBlue +10
6Cage & park16
6Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +54
0Foul points0
99Total score45

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3284
#11
43.90.4
42.742.3
Auto5.6
Teleop36.3
End2.0
red by 1.9
42.03.3
45.642.4
Auto7.3
Teleop27.4
End7.3
Second
5454
#10
33.30.4
34.934.6
Auto6.5
Teleop27.7
End-1.0
red by 2.3
31.03.3
30.427.1
Auto6.2
Teleop22.1
End2.6
Third
5268
#39
23.00.4
27.126.7
Auto6.0
Teleop13.5
End3.6
red by 10.0
6843
#20
13.03.3
17.914.6
Auto2.5
Teleop5.7
End4.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
56%Auto oddsEarned69%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
6%Coral oddsMissed6%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
5%Barge oddsMissed85%Barge oddsEarned