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Red142
580179.8
445512.8
596834.2
Blue112
200113.1
198777.9
241019.2
70%Model gave it30%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions14411950100200142112

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+4Auto
+30Teleop
+30Endgame
+30Fouls
AutonomousRed +4
9Leave0
6Coral scored#7
28Coral points33
37Total auto33
TeleoperatedRed +26
18Coral scored#12
63Coral points43
2Processor algae#1
4Net algae#4
12Processor points6
16Net points16
28Algae points22
91Total teleop65
Reef
6L4#7
9L3#5
5L2#5
4L1 · trough#2
30Game pieces#24
Bargelevel
14Cage & park14
14Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +30
0Foul points0
142Total score112

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
79.81.2
77.178.3
Auto18.7
Teleop53.1
End8.0
red by 1.9
77.90.3
75.375.5
Auto18.5
Teleop49.1
End10.4
Second
5968
#18
34.21.2
34.435.6
Auto9.2
Teleop23.9
End1.0
red by 15.0
2410
#13
19.20.3
19.319.5
Auto4.3
Teleop13.3
End1.6
Third
4455
#19
12.81.2
12.713.8
Auto4.6
Teleop3.7
End4.6
blue by 0.2
2001
#28
13.10.3
13.613.9
Auto4.9
Teleop6.3
End1.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
94%Auto oddsEarned84%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
12%Coral oddsMissed43%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
64%Barge oddsEarned70%Barge oddsEarned