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Red65
81121.8
944514.2
882529.4
Blue15
18275.8
178523.7
17638.9
56%Model gave it44%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions52490204060806515

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+50Teleop
+50Endgame
+50Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
3Leave3
1Coral scored#1
6Coral points3
9Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +47
12Coral scored#2
42Coral points7
0Processor algae#0
3Net algae#0
0Processor points0
12Net points0
12Algae points0
54Total teleop7
Reef
6L4#1
3L3#1
3L2#1
1L1 · trough#0
16Game pieces#3
Bargelevel
2Cage & park2
2Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +50
0Foul points0
65Total score15

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
8825
#36
29.41.2
32.133.3
Auto3.2
Teleop22.6
End3.5
red by 5.7
1785
#41
23.72.0
27.925.8
Auto2.3
Teleop17.4
End4.0
Second
9445
#38
14.21.2
15.116.3
Auto2.5
Teleop9.2
End2.4
red by 5.2
1763
#29
8.92.0
10.28.2
Auto3.1
Teleop5.3
End0.6
Third
8112
#34
1.81.2
-0.50.8
Auto3.5
Teleop-1.9
End0.2
blue by 4.0
1827
#37
5.82.0
7.35.3
Auto3.1
Teleop1.9
End0.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
15%Auto oddsMissed15%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
2%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
32%Barge oddsMissed23%Barge oddsMissed