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Red199
198671.5
941042.0
110857.4
Blue54
182537.3
173022.2
184730.5
92%Model gave it8%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1819805015020025030019954

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+17Auto
+121Teleop
+133Endgame
+145Fouls
AutonomousRed +17
6Leave6
3Coral scored#0
17Coral points0
23Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +104
22Coral scored#7
80Coral points24
3Processor algae#1
10Net algae#1
18Processor points6
40Net points4
58Algae points10
138Total teleop34
Reef
9L4#2
6L3#3
6L2#1
4L1 · trough#1
38Game pieces#9
BargeRed +12
26Cage & park14
26Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +145
12Foul points0
199Total score54

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
71.51.5
67.969.5
Auto17.6
Teleop46.6
End7.3
red by 34.2
1825
#15
37.33.1
38.435.3
Auto9.7
Teleop23.7
End3.9
Second
57.41.5
53.955.5
Auto10.8
Teleop37.1
End9.5
red by 26.9
1847
#31
30.53.1
37.234.1
Auto7.2
Teleop19.3
End4.0
Third
42.01.5
42.043.6
Auto7.3
Teleop27.4
End7.3
red by 19.8
1730
#42
22.23.1
24.721.6
Auto4.2
Teleop15.2
End2.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
98%Auto oddsEarned96%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
14%Coral oddsEarned9%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
96%Barge oddsEarned43%Barge oddsEarned