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Red130
328443.9
642468.1
509810.8
Blue170
93532.2
198671.5
182537.3
45%Model gave it55%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions133146050100200250300350400130170

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+8
Teleop+26
Endgame+28
Fouls+40
AutonomousBlue +8
9Leave9
4Coral scored#6
20Coral points28
29Total auto37
TeleoperatedBlue +18
17Coral scored#19
61Coral points67
1Processor algae#3
5Net algae#5
6Processor points18
20Net points20
26Algae points38
87Total teleop105
Reef
8L4#6
5L3#8
5L2#6
3L1 · trough#5
27Game pieces#33
BargeBlue +2
14Cage & park16
14Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +40
0Foul points12
130Total score170

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
68.10.1
66.466.5
Auto16.8
Teleop41.2
End10.1
blue by 3.4
71.51.1
69.570.5
Auto17.6
Teleop46.6
End7.3
Second
3284
#11
43.90.1
43.143.2
Auto5.6
Teleop36.3
End2.0
red by 6.6
1825
#15
37.31.1
35.336.4
Auto9.7
Teleop23.7
End3.9
Third
5098
#40
10.80.1
10.810.8
Auto5.7
Teleop4.0
End1.1
blue by 21.4
935
#9
32.21.1
29.030.1
Auto3.2
Teleop25.0
End4.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
94%Auto oddsEarned94%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
24%Coral oddsMissed18%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
68%Barge oddsEarned61%Barge oddsEarned