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Red101
23734.9
634624.6
23038.4
Blue30
71617.0
27129.5
457210.7
98%Model gave it2%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions11345010015010130

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+24Auto
+65Teleop
+71Endgame
+71Fouls
AutonomousRed +24
0Leave0
6Coral scored#1
30Coral points6
30Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +41
14Coral scored#4
51Coral points16
1Processor algae#0
2Net algae#2
6Processor points0
8Net points8
14Algae points8
65Total teleop24
Reef
4L4#2
8L3#1
5L2#1
3L1 · trough#1
23Game pieces#7
BargeRed +6
6Cage & park0
6Total endgame0
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +71
0Foul points0
101Total score30

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
230
#11
38.40.4
33.133.5
Auto11.4
Teleop23.7
End3.3
red by 21.4
716
#30
17.01.8
21.119.3
Auto3.3
Teleop11.5
End2.2
Second
237
#5
34.90.4
32.633.0
Auto6.8
Teleop25.1
End2.9
red by 24.2
4572
#31
10.71.8
14.512.6
Auto5.1
Teleop4.5
End1.1
Third
6346
#13
24.60.4
25.726.1
Auto4.6
Teleop20.0
End0.0
red by 15.2
2712
#37
9.51.8
6.95.1
Auto1.7
Teleop5.8
End2.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
81%Auto oddsEarned20%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
54%Barge oddsMissed43%Barge oddsMissed