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Red141
740765.2
17725.5
888926.8
Blue67
27129.5
786930.6
107330.8
99%Model gave it1%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions138665010015020014167

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+28Auto
+50Teleop
+62Endgame
+74Fouls
AutonomousRed +28
9Leave6
6Coral scored#1
28Coral points3
37Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +22
12Coral scored#8
44Coral points30
1Processor algae#1
4Net algae#2
6Processor points6
16Net points8
22Algae points14
66Total teleop44
Reef
8L4#4
6L3#2
2L2#2
2L1 · trough#1
23Game pieces#12
BargeRed +12
26Cage & park14
26Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +74
12Foul points0
141Total score67

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
65.20.5
65.065.5
Auto20.4
Teleop34.9
End10.0
red by 34.4
30.80.3
27.527.3
Auto4.4
Teleop18.8
End7.6
Second
8889
#23
26.80.4
25.726.1
Auto5.7
Teleop20.4
End0.8
blue by 3.8
7869
#33
30.60.3
30.930.6
Auto2.0
Teleop29.0
End-0.4
Third
177
#16
25.50.5
29.529.9
Auto6.9
Teleop13.4
End5.1
red by 16.0
2712
#37
9.50.3
9.79.4
Auto1.7
Teleop5.8
End2.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
94%Auto oddsEarned12%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
10%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
81%Barge oddsEarned45%Barge oddsEarned