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Red100
206434.5
457210.7
23038.4
Blue50
356618.7
363418.8
17725.5
73%Model gave it27%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions886902040608010012014016010050

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+16Auto
+40Teleop
+50Endgame
+50Fouls
AutonomousRed +16
9Leave0
5Coral scored#3
23Coral points16
32Total auto16
TeleoperatedRed +24
8Coral scored#4
30Coral points16
1Processor algae#0
3Net algae#2
6Processor points0
12Net points8
18Algae points8
48Total teleop24
Reef
4L4#3
3L3#2
3L2#1
3L1 · trough#1
17Game pieces#9
BargeRed +10
14Cage & park4
14Total endgame4
Penalties & totalRed +50
6Foul points6
100Total score50

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
230
#11
38.40.4
36.136.4
Auto11.4
Teleop23.7
End3.3
red by 12.9
177
#16
25.50.5
26.125.7
Auto6.9
Teleop13.4
End5.1
Second
34.50.4
32.232.6
Auto7.6
Teleop20.1
End6.8
red by 15.8
3634
#10
18.80.5
19.419.0
Auto5.5
Teleop9.6
End3.7
Third
4572
#31
10.70.4
8.38.7
Auto5.1
Teleop4.5
End1.1
blue by 8.0
3566
#20
18.70.5
19.318.9
Auto2.5
Teleop14.7
End1.5