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Red204
170692.6
86275.2
366386.0
Blue265
347880.5
327684.2
177189.9
60%Model gave it40%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions272260200250300350204265

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+7
Teleop+43
Endgame+55
Fouls+61
AutonomousBlue +7
6Leave0
9Coral scored#12
45Coral points58
51Total auto58
TeleoperatedBlue +36
28Coral scored#36
101Coral points129
2Processor algae#4
4Net algae#3
12Processor points24
16Net points12
28Algae points36
129Total teleop165
Reef
15L4#17
9L3#12
7L2#14
6L1 · trough#5
43Game pieces#55
BargeBlue +12
24Cage & park36
24Total endgame36
Penalties & totalBlue +61
0Foul points6
204Total score265

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1706
#36
92.61.2
93.792.5
Auto21.7
Teleop60.0
End10.9
red by 2.7
89.90.1
89.289.4
Auto27.2
Teleop52.2
End10.5
Second
86.01.2
87.185.9
Auto18.0
Teleop56.5
End11.5
red by 1.8
3276
#42
84.20.1
83.583.7
Auto11.0
Teleop62.0
End11.2
Third
862
#37
75.21.2
76.375.1
Auto16.0
Teleop45.8
End13.3
blue by 5.4
3478
#29
80.50.1
79.980.0
Auto19.0
Teleop50.5
End11.1