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Red137
146636.6
661561.5
1015433.5
Blue219
327684.2
479562.2
716673.8
1%Model gave it99%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions142234100200250300137219

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+11
Teleop+78
Endgame+88
Fouls+82
AutonomousBlue +11
3Leave3
5Coral scored#8
27Coral points38
30Total auto41
TeleoperatedBlue +67
16Coral scored#23
57Coral points82
3Processor algae#6
5Net algae#11
18Processor points36
20Net points44
38Algae points80
95Total teleop162
Reef
8L4#9
4L3#10
5L2#7
4L1 · trough#5
29Game pieces#48
BargeBlue +10
6Cage & park16
6Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +82
6Foul points0
137Total score219

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
6615
#57
61.50.8
64.763.9
Auto13.5
Teleop47.9
End0.1
blue by 22.7
3276
#42
84.20.3
83.082.7
Auto11.0
Teleop62.0
End11.2
Second
1466
#41
36.60.8
32.131.4
Auto6.7
Teleop28.9
End1.0
blue by 37.2
7166
#19
73.80.3
70.770.4
Auto18.6
Teleop45.7
End9.4
Third
33.51.0
34.833.8
Auto3.6
Teleop25.5
End4.4
blue by 28.7
4795
#46
62.20.3
58.858.5
Auto10.9
Teleop50.2
End1.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
79%Auto oddsEarned98%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
38%Coral oddsMissed84%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
39%Barge oddsMissed88%Barge oddsEarned