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Red221
300592.2
940150.5
317570.7
Blue249
366386.0
423766.3
851365.6
41%Model gave it59%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions232240160180200220260280300221249

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+14
Teleop+8
Endgame+28
Fouls+28
AutonomousBlue +14
3Leave9
7Coral scored#8
34Coral points42
37Total auto51
TeleoperatedRed +6
28Coral scored#27
102Coral points96
3Processor algae#7
12Net algae#6
18Processor points42
48Net points24
66Algae points66
168Total teleop162
Reef
11L4#15
13L3#11
7L2#5
4L1 · trough#4
50Game pieces#48
BargeBlue +20
16Cage & park36
16Total endgame36
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +28
0Foul points0
221Total score249

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3005
#26
92.20.6
92.693.1
Auto19.8
Teleop61.8
End10.6
red by 6.2
86.02.0
84.286.2
Auto18.0
Teleop56.5
End11.5
Second
3175
#32
70.70.6
69.269.8
Auto15.0
Teleop48.0
End7.7
red by 4.5
4237
#34
66.32.0
66.068.0
Auto16.1
Teleop45.1
End5.2
Third
9401
#75
50.50.6
50.451.0
Auto12.9
Teleop32.0
End5.7
blue by 15.0
8513
#22
65.62.0
68.670.7
Auto19.5
Teleop35.1
End11.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
99%Auto oddsEarned99%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
88%Coral oddsMissed95%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
94%Barge oddsEarned93%Barge oddsEarned