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Red199
170692.6
348741.4
331357.9
Blue227
453450.1
204682.6
114849.7
62%Model gave it38%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions202195160180220240199227

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+4
Teleop+32
Endgame+30
Fouls+28
AutonomousBlue +4
9Leave9
6Coral scored#7
31Coral points35
40Total auto44
TeleoperatedBlue +28
28Coral scored#27
99Coral points97
2Processor algae#5
5Net algae#8
12Processor points30
20Net points32
32Algae points62
131Total teleop159
Reef
9L4#14
13L3#6
9L2#9
3L1 · trough#5
41Game pieces#47
BargeRed +2
26Cage & park24
26Total endgame24
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +28
2Foul points0
199Total score227

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1706
#36
92.60.6
85.586.0
Auto21.7
Teleop60.0
End10.9
red by 10.1
2046
#15
82.62.5
82.685.1
Auto17.3
Teleop57.3
End8.1
Second
3313
#56
57.90.6
52.453.0
Auto14.4
Teleop34.4
End9.0
red by 7.8
4534
#65
50.12.5
45.848.3
Auto14.2
Teleop35.1
End0.8
Third
3487
#48
41.40.6
39.339.9
Auto6.3
Teleop31.3
End3.7
blue by 8.3
1148
#38
49.72.5
49.852.3
Auto9.9
Teleop34.7
End5.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
95%Auto oddsEarned98%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
62%Coral oddsEarned41%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
85%Barge oddsEarned73%Barge oddsEarned