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Red173
10363.4
694156.0
851365.6
Blue215
350155.8
126163.8
632983.3
52%Model gave it48%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions211210170180190200220230240250173215

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+21
Teleop+50
Endgame+40
Fouls+42
AutonomousBlue +21
0Leave6
6Coral scored#9
30Coral points45
30Total auto51
TeleoperatedBlue +29
21Coral scored#26
77Coral points92
4Processor algae#3
4Net algae#9
24Processor points18
16Net points36
40Algae points54
117Total teleop146
Reef
10L4#14
5L3#7
8L2#8
4L1 · trough#6
35Game pieces#47
BargeRed +10
26Cage & park16
26Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +42
0Foul points2
173Total score215

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
8513
#22
65.61.7
66.264.5
Auto19.5
Teleop35.1
End11.0
blue by 17.7
83.30.0
88.288.2
Auto21.0
Teleop51.8
End10.5
Second
103
#30
63.41.7
67.465.7
Auto7.3
Teleop51.8
End4.3
blue by 0.4
1261
#13
63.80.0
61.561.5
Auto19.3
Teleop41.8
End2.6
Third
6941
#73
56.01.9
54.552.6
Auto12.5
Teleop37.3
End6.2
red by 0.2
3501
#39
55.80.0
52.152.0
Auto13.9
Teleop40.0
End1.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
96%Auto oddsEarned99%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
59%Coral oddsMissed77%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
91%Barge oddsEarned72%Barge oddsEarned