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Red223
317570.7
347880.5
448178.5
Blue219
661561.5
702865.4
546077.7
81%Model gave it19%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions243205150300350223219

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
Teleop+6
+4Endgame
+4Fouls
AutonomousRed +14
0Leave3
12Coral scored#8
58Coral points41
58Total auto44
TeleoperatedBlue +20
28Coral scored#28
99Coral points101
5Processor algae#6
5Net algae#8
30Processor points36
20Net points32
50Algae points68
149Total teleop169
Reef
16L4#15
9L3#10
7L2#8
8L1 · trough#3
50Game pieces#50
BargeRed +10
16Cage & park6
16Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +4
0Foul points0
223Total score219

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3478
#29
80.51.4
76.775.3
Auto19.0
Teleop50.5
End11.1
red by 2.8
5460
#11
77.71.0
70.971.9
Auto22.3
Teleop49.4
End6.1
Second
4481
#16
78.51.4
79.978.5
Auto22.0
Teleop46.9
End9.6
red by 13.1
65.41.0
58.759.7
Auto14.7
Teleop40.4
End10.3
Third
3175
#32
70.71.4
76.174.7
Auto15.0
Teleop48.0
End7.7
red by 9.2
6615
#57
61.51.0
63.264.2
Auto13.5
Teleop47.9
End0.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
99%Auto oddsEarned98%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
80%Coral oddsEarned93%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
98%Barge oddsEarned83%Barge oddsMissed