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Red154
149860.3
419243.2
960968.7
Blue180
204682.6
146636.6
702865.4
27%Model gave it73%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions177201150250300154180

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+1
Teleop+24
Endgame+26
Fouls+26
AutonomousBlue +1
6Leave6
6Coral scored#6
30Coral points31
36Total auto37
TeleoperatedBlue +23
21Coral scored#23
74Coral points81
3Processor algae#3
3Net algae#7
18Processor points18
12Net points28
30Algae points46
104Total teleop127
Reef
13L4#14
5L3#5
5L2#6
4L1 · trough#4
33Game pieces#39
BargeBlue +2
14Cage & park16
14Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +26
0Foul points0
154Total score180

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
9609
#31
68.71.2
66.365.1
Auto12.0
Teleop48.4
End8.4
blue by 13.9
2046
#15
82.60.1
82.782.6
Auto17.3
Teleop57.3
End8.1
Second
1498
#71
60.31.2
60.158.9
Auto13.8
Teleop39.3
End7.2
blue by 5.1
65.40.1
60.660.6
Auto14.7
Teleop40.4
End10.3
Third
4192
#66
43.21.2
39.838.7
Auto9.7
Teleop30.2
End3.3
red by 6.6
1466
#41
36.60.1
31.731.7
Auto6.7
Teleop28.9
End1.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
97%Auto oddsEarned96%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
31%Coral oddsMissed64%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
94%Barge oddsMissed78%Barge oddsEarned