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Red157
2780.8
346775.4
114849.7
Blue213
350155.8
461173.7
860871.5
81%Model gave it19%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions226202160180240260280157213

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+14
Teleop+38
Endgame+48
Fouls+56
AutonomousBlue +14
0Leave9
7Coral scored#8
37Coral points42
37Total auto51
TeleoperatedBlue +24
23Coral scored#29
82Coral points106
1Processor algae#1
4Net algae#4
6Processor points6
16Net points16
22Algae points22
104Total teleop128
Reef
11L4#16
9L3#10
6L2#7
4L1 · trough#4
35Game pieces#42
BargeBlue +10
16Cage & park26
16Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +56
0Foul points8
157Total score213

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
27
#18
80.84.2
81.877.6
Auto18.6
Teleop51.4
End10.8
red by 7.1
73.70.2
76.476.1
Auto18.5
Teleop46.3
End9.0
Second
3467
#24
75.44.2
73.769.4
Auto14.4
Teleop51.8
End9.2
red by 3.9
8608
#35
71.50.2
71.871.5
Auto19.5
Teleop41.5
End10.5
Third
1148
#38
49.74.2
53.549.3
Auto9.9
Teleop34.7
End5.0
blue by 6.1
3501
#39
55.80.2
49.249.0
Auto13.9
Teleop40.0
End1.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
98%Auto oddsEarned97%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
97%Coral oddsMissed67%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
97%Barge oddsEarned79%Barge oddsEarned