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Red179
752539.5
445171.0
930136.1
Blue130
614645.1
272449.2
401320.7
82%Model gave it18%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions16411950100150200250179130

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+25Auto
+35Teleop
+45Endgame
+49Fouls
AutonomousRed +25
0Leave6
8Coral scored#2
40Coral points9
40Total auto15
TeleoperatedRed +10
20Coral scored#13
73Coral points47
3Processor algae#3
4Net algae#8
18Processor points18
16Net points32
34Algae points50
107Total teleop97
Reef
10L4#7
8L3#4
7L2#2
3L1 · trough#2
35Game pieces#26
BargeRed +10
26Cage & park16
26Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +49
6Foul points2
179Total score130

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4451
#34
71.01.4
69.070.4
Auto14.5
Teleop50.1
End6.4
red by 21.8
2724
#40
49.20.4
47.047.5
Auto8.2
Teleop32.1
End8.8
Second
7525
#16
39.51.4
37.038.4
Auto14.3
Teleop22.1
End3.1
blue by 5.6
6146
#53
45.10.4
44.444.9
Auto4.7
Teleop34.9
End5.5
Third
9301
#36
36.11.4
34.736.1
Auto7.9
Teleop18.3
End9.9
red by 15.3
4013
#65
20.70.4
18.719.1
Auto4.8
Teleop14.5
End1.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
96%Auto oddsEarned89%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
13%Coral oddsMissed21%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
71%Barge oddsEarned57%Barge oddsEarned