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Red176
264863.7
263081.6
389139.2
Blue160
325574.5
752539.5
943270.2
67%Model gave it33%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions18816150100250300350176160

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+4Auto
+22Teleop
+22Endgame
+16Fouls
AutonomousRed +4
6Leave0
6Coral scored#7
31Coral points33
37Total auto33
TeleoperatedRed +18
18Coral scored#15
65Coral points55
5Processor algae#3
4Net algae#5
30Processor points18
16Net points20
46Algae points38
111Total teleop93
Reef
11L4#5
8L3#7
3L2#6
2L1 · trough#4
33Game pieces#30
Bargelevel
26Cage & park26
26Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +16
2Foul points8
176Total score160

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
81.60.2
73.273.1
Auto21.6
Teleop48.4
End11.6
red by 7.1
3255
#39
74.50.2
69.669.4
Auto15.7
Teleop48.1
End10.6
Second
2648
#59
63.70.2
59.859.7
Auto11.1
Teleop47.8
End4.8
blue by 6.6
9432
#23
70.20.2
62.962.8
Auto16.5
Teleop44.5
End9.2
Third
3891
#46
39.20.2
43.443.2
Auto8.7
Teleop28.1
End2.4
blue by 0.2
7525
#16
39.50.2
22.122.0
Auto14.3
Teleop22.1
End3.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
92%Auto oddsEarned99%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
46%Coral oddsMissed45%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
73%Barge oddsEarned91%Barge oddsEarned