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Red232
441582.7
642469.1
64940.8
Blue221
212969.5
903260.3
17979.1
39%Model gave it61%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions206221100150250300232221

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+8Auto
Teleop+9
+11Endgame
+11Fouls
AutonomousRed +8
3Leave3
8Coral scored#7
41Coral points33
44Total auto36
TeleoperatedBlue +17
27Coral scored#37
96Coral points133
6Processor algae#2
5Net algae#6
36Processor points12
20Net points24
56Algae points36
152Total teleop169
Reef
9L4#15
9L3#15
9L2#8
8L1 · trough#6
46Game pieces#52
BargeRed +20
36Cage & park16
36Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +11
0Foul points0
232Total score221

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
82.72.0
81.683.6
Auto13.7
Teleop57.6
End11.4
red by 3.6
179
#5
79.10.1
75.675.7
Auto15.2
Teleop55.8
End8.0
Second
69.12.0
67.769.7
Auto13.4
Teleop43.1
End12.6
blue by 0.4
2129
#51
69.50.1
69.369.5
Auto18.2
Teleop48.9
End2.4
Third
649
#52
40.82.0
38.340.3
Auto8.9
Teleop28.4
End3.6
blue by 19.4
9032
#43
60.30.1
60.160.3
Auto11.7
Teleop45.3
End3.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
95%Auto oddsEarned98%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
68%Coral oddsEarned90%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
98%Barge oddsEarned52%Barge oddsEarned