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Red144
496764.5
389139.2
401320.7
Blue146
53738.0
184743.4
691153.1
39%Model gave it61%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions136147100200250144146

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
+10Teleop
0Endgame0
Fouls+2
AutonomousRed +14
3Leave6
5Coral scored#2
27Coral points10
30Total auto16
TeleoperatedBlue +4
22Coral scored#19
78Coral points70
2Processor algae#2
2Net algae#5
12Processor points12
8Net points20
20Algae points32
98Total teleop102
Reef
9L4#8
7L3#7
5L2#4
6L1 · trough#2
31Game pieces#28
BargeBlue +10
16Cage & park26
16Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +2
0Foul points2
144Total score146

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4967
#27
64.51.6
62.964.5
Auto13.9
Teleop41.4
End9.2
red by 11.4
6911
#57
53.10.8
52.353.1
Auto7.0
Teleop41.2
End4.9
Second
3891
#46
39.21.6
37.639.2
Auto8.7
Teleop28.1
End2.4
blue by 4.2
1847
#30
43.40.8
42.643.4
Auto6.5
Teleop30.7
End6.2
Third
4013
#65
20.71.6
19.120.7
Auto4.8
Teleop14.5
End1.4
blue by 17.3
537
#68
38.00.8
37.238.0
Auto6.8
Teleop26.7
End4.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
88%Auto oddsEarned78%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
14%Coral oddsMissed13%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
33%Barge oddsEarned47%Barge oddsEarned