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Red178
150765.6
752539.5
919947.6
Blue131
148149.1
596838.0
136939.7
71%Model gave it29%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions16513650100150200250178131

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+17Auto
+35Teleop
+45Endgame
+47Fouls
AutonomousRed +17
3Leave6
9Coral scored#5
44Coral points24
47Total auto30
TeleoperatedRed +18
27Coral scored#15
97Coral points55
1Processor algae#3
3Net algae#6
6Processor points18
12Net points24
18Algae points42
115Total teleop97
Reef
16L4#8
12L3#5
4L2#3
4L1 · trough#4
40Game pieces#29
BargeRed +10
14Cage & park4
14Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +47
2Foul points0
178Total score131

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1507
#25
65.61.3
65.867.0
Auto13.4
Teleop42.6
End9.7
red by 16.6
1481
#70
49.10.0
45.345.3
Auto11.2
Teleop31.5
End6.4
Second
9199
#48
47.61.3
47.949.1
Auto10.9
Teleop28.7
End8.0
red by 7.9
1369
#50
39.70.0
30.130.1
Auto6.1
Teleop30.4
End3.2
Third
7525
#16
39.51.3
29.730.9
Auto14.3
Teleop22.1
End3.1
red by 1.5
5968
#74
38.00.0
41.641.6
Auto10.5
Teleop25.5
End2.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
97%Auto oddsEarned77%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
36%Coral oddsMissed15%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
86%Barge oddsMissed25%Barge oddsMissed