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Red209
272449.2
441582.7
919947.6
Blue133
328446.7
880847.5
690932.4
95%Model gave it5%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions20012950100150250300209133

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+11Auto
+38Teleop
+68Endgame
+76Fouls
AutonomousRed +11
6Leave6
4Coral scored#2
21Coral points10
27Total auto16
TeleoperatedRed +27
24Coral scored#16
88Coral points57
5Processor algae#5
5Net algae#6
30Processor points30
20Net points24
50Algae points54
138Total teleop111
Reef
13L4#4
6L3#7
4L2#5
5L1 · trough#2
38Game pieces#29
BargeRed +30
36Cage & park6
36Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +76
8Foul points0
209Total score133

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
82.71.4
78.780.2
Auto13.7
Teleop57.6
End11.4
red by 35.2
8808
#73
47.50.1
45.946.1
Auto10.0
Teleop33.1
End4.3
Second
2724
#40
49.21.4
40.642.0
Auto8.2
Teleop32.1
End8.8
red by 2.5
3284
#63
46.70.1
40.840.9
Auto6.7
Teleop39.9
End0.1
Third
9199
#48
47.61.4
49.150.5
Auto10.9
Teleop28.7
End8.0
red by 15.2
6909
#71
32.40.1
33.333.5
Auto6.1
Teleop20.9
End5.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
98%Auto oddsEarned94%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
72%Coral oddsEarned18%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
96%Barge oddsEarned70%Barge oddsMissed