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Red178
41858.6
90067.8
150765.6
Blue196
328446.7
325659.5
460777.6
78%Model gave it22%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions213188120140160180200220240260280178196

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
Teleop+28
Endgame+18
Fouls+18
AutonomousRed +14
3Leave9
9Coral scored#5
44Coral points24
47Total auto33
TeleoperatedBlue +42
21Coral scored#26
75Coral points95
2Processor algae#5
7Net algae#8
12Processor points30
28Net points32
40Algae points62
115Total teleop157
Reef
11L4#11
9L3#11
4L2#3
6L1 · trough#6
39Game pieces#44
BargeRed +10
16Cage & park6
16Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +18
0Foul points0
178Total score196

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
900
#19
67.81.1
67.766.6
Auto18.1
Teleop48.8
End0.9
blue by 9.8
4607
#31
77.61.8
73.074.8
Auto16.4
Teleop52.8
End8.4
Second
1507
#25
65.61.1
66.765.6
Auto13.4
Teleop42.6
End9.7
red by 6.1
3256
#58
59.51.8
52.954.8
Auto11.8
Teleop39.0
End8.7
Third
418
#20
58.61.1
60.359.2
Auto14.0
Teleop35.5
End9.1
red by 11.9
3284
#63
46.71.8
42.444.3
Auto6.7
Teleop39.9
End0.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
99%Auto oddsEarned96%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
68%Coral oddsMissed48%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
92%Barge oddsEarned78%Barge oddsMissed