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Red228
460777.6
642469.1
173164.0
Blue246
317374.8
17979.1
465578.8
35%Model gave it65%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions222239150200250300350228246

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+1Auto
Teleop+24
Endgame+24
Fouls+18
AutonomousRed +1
0Leave3
10Coral scored#9
51Coral points47
51Total auto50
TeleoperatedBlue +25
29Coral scored#26
103Coral points94
2Processor algae#5
5Net algae#9
12Processor points30
20Net points36
32Algae points66
135Total teleop160
Reef
11L4#9
13L3#11
7L2#8
8L1 · trough#7
46Game pieces#49
Bargelevel
36Cage & park36
36Total endgame36
Penalties & totalBlue +18
6Foul points0
228Total score246

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4607
#31
77.60.3
77.677.8
Auto16.4
Teleop52.8
End8.4
blue by 1.5
179
#5
79.10.5
75.776.2
Auto15.2
Teleop55.8
End8.0
Second
69.10.3
68.568.8
Auto13.4
Teleop43.1
End12.6
blue by 9.7
78.80.5
75.475.9
Auto21.3
Teleop48.0
End9.5
Third
1731
#37
64.00.3
63.263.4
Auto14.8
Teleop39.3
End9.9
blue by 10.8
3173
#45
74.80.5
71.572.0
Auto17.8
Teleop45.4
End11.7