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Red145
999921.2
765211.1
18079.4
Blue114
10851.7
215215.2
999722.1
80%Model gave it20%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions12785050100150200145114

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+17Auto
+43Teleop
+31Endgame
+31Fouls
AutonomousRed +17
6Leave3
6Coral scored#3
31Coral points17
37Total auto20
TeleoperatedRed +26
21Coral scored#16
76Coral points56
2Processor algae#1
4Net algae#4
12Processor points6
16Net points16
28Algae points22
104Total teleop78
Reef
8L4#8
6L3#4
8L2#4
5L1 · trough#3
33Game pieces#24
BargeBlue +12
4Cage & park16
4Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +31
0Foul points0
145Total score114

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
180
#1
79.42.3
77.379.6
Auto17.6
Teleop54.6
End7.2
red by 27.7
108
#5
51.72.0
57.259.2
Auto17.4
Teleop31.2
End3.1
Second
9999
#11
21.23.8
14.618.4
Auto7.3
Teleop13.9
End0.0
blue by 1.0
9997
#20
22.13.3
11.314.7
Auto2.9
Teleop16.5
End2.7
Third
7652
#14
11.12.3
9.611.9
Auto3.9
Teleop6.1
End1.0
blue by 4.1
2152
#12
15.22.0
12.414.4
Auto2.8
Teleop9.3
End3.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
94%Auto oddsEarned55%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
20%Coral oddsMissed2%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
55%Barge oddsMissed22%Barge oddsEarned