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Red146
881739.6
999722.1
238353.8
Blue110
393241.3
999921.2
99986.3
79%Model gave it21%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions11477050100150146110

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+14
+24Teleop
+34Endgame
+36Fouls
AutonomousBlue +14
6Leave6
2Coral scored#5
10Coral points24
16Total auto30
TeleoperatedRed +38
21Coral scored#13
74Coral points46
2Processor algae#1
4Net algae#3
12Processor points6
16Net points12
28Algae points18
102Total teleop64
Reef
9L4#6
6L3#4
4L2#5
4L1 · trough#3
29Game pieces#22
BargeRed +10
16Cage & park6
16Total endgame6
Penalties & totalRed +36
12Foul points10
146Total score110

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
53.80.7
49.750.4
Auto10.5
Teleop34.4
End8.9
red by 12.5
41.30.9
39.440.2
Auto14.2
Teleop23.1
End4.0
Second
39.60.7
35.436.1
Auto5.3
Teleop30.2
End4.2
red by 18.4
9999
#11
21.21.1
18.619.7
Auto7.3
Teleop13.9
End0.0
Third
9997
#20
22.11.0
16.617.5
Auto2.9
Teleop16.5
End2.7
red by 15.8
9998
#22
6.31.1
3.74.9
Auto2.2
Teleop3.0
End1.1