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Red173
18079.4
17967.7
66868.1
Blue121
881739.6
999722.1
238353.8
72%Model gave it28%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1661000200300400173121

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+4
+34Teleop
+34Endgame
+52Fouls
AutonomousBlue +4
6Leave9
1Coral scored#1
6Coral points7
12Total auto16
TeleoperatedRed +38
26Coral scored#17
95Coral points61
2Processor algae#2
5Net algae#4
12Processor points12
20Net points16
32Algae points28
127Total teleop89
Reef
11L4#8
7L3#5
5L2#3
4L1 · trough#2
34Game pieces#24
Bargelevel
16Cage & park16
16Total endgame16
Penalties & totalRed +52
18Foul points0
173Total score121

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
180
#1
79.40.2
75.976.1
Auto17.6
Teleop54.6
End7.2
red by 25.6
53.80.4
50.450.8
Auto10.5
Teleop34.4
End8.9
Second
179
#2
67.70.2
64.164.4
Auto9.8
Teleop48.4
End9.4
red by 28.1
39.60.4
36.136.5
Auto5.3
Teleop30.2
End4.2
Third
6686
#17
8.10.2
4.54.8
Auto1.3
Teleop6.0
End0.7
blue by 14.0
9997
#20
22.10.5
17.518.0
Auto2.9
Teleop16.5
End2.7