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Red209
190256.4
967028.3
23353.7
Blue199
38653.1
155718.2
393241.4
86%Model gave it14%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions174138100150200250209199

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+2
+20Teleop
+10Endgame
+10Fouls
AutonomousBlue +2
9Leave0
4Coral scored#6
19Coral points30
28Total auto30
TeleoperatedRed +22
35Coral scored#28
127Coral points99
4Processor algae#3
6Net algae#9
24Processor points18
24Net points36
48Algae points54
175Total teleop153
Reef
17L4#14
7L3#9
8L2#6
7L1 · trough#5
49Game pieces#46
BargeBlue +10
6Cage & park16
6Total endgame16
Penalties & totalRed +10
0Foul points0
209Total score199

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
56.40.7
56.657.3
Auto7.9
Teleop40.5
End8.1
red by 3.4
386
#9
53.11.2
52.153.3
Auto10.7
Teleop35.4
End6.9
Second
233
#2
53.70.7
53.954.6
Auto8.8
Teleop42.0
End3.0
red by 12.3
3932
#12
41.41.5
40.341.7
Auto7.2
Teleop28.0
End6.3
Third
9670
#28
28.30.9
28.529.4
Auto5.1
Teleop22.9
End0.2
red by 10.2
1557
#22
18.21.5
17.018.4
Auto2.7
Teleop13.6
End1.8