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Red176
8645.1
672235.1
80142.8
Blue139
74417.1
5952.2
547247.4
55%Model gave it45%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions13412650100150200250176139

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+17Auto
+19Teleop
+19Endgame
+37Fouls
AutonomousRed +17
9Leave9
6Coral scored#2
28Coral points11
37Total auto20
TeleoperatedRed +2
20Coral scored#15
71Coral points55
3Processor algae#2
4Net algae#9
18Processor points12
16Net points36
34Algae points48
105Total teleop103
Reef
11L4#5
7L3#5
5L2#4
3L1 · trough#3
33Game pieces#28
Bargelevel
16Cage & park16
16Total endgame16
Penalties & totalRed +37
18Foul points0
176Total score139

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
86
#16
45.10.8
44.945.7
Auto11.4
Teleop24.9
End8.8
blue by 7.1
59
#5
52.20.7
51.552.2
Auto6.4
Teleop37.6
End8.2
Second
801
#8
42.81.0
42.643.5
Auto12.1
Teleop29.6
End1.1
blue by 4.7
47.40.5
46.947.4
Auto11.6
Teleop32.6
End3.3
Third
6722
#21
35.11.0
34.835.8
Auto6.1
Teleop26.4
End2.5
red by 18.0
744
#29
17.10.5
16.617.1
Auto3.9
Teleop10.8
End2.4