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Red173
190249.5
38648.9
618416.1
Blue153
10840.9
878824.5
23342.4
64%Model gave it36%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions12411790100110130140150160170173153

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+2Auto
+6Teleop
+16Endgame
+20Fouls
AutonomousRed +2
3Leave9
6Coral scored#5
32Coral points24
35Total auto33
TeleoperatedRed +4
21Coral scored#26
74Coral points94
3Processor algae#1
7Net algae#4
18Processor points6
28Net points16
46Algae points22
120Total teleop116
Reef
10L4#12
5L3#9
8L2#7
4L1 · trough#3
37Game pieces#36
BargeRed +10
14Cage & park4
14Total endgame4
Penalties & totalRed +20
4Foul points0
173Total score153

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
49.51.3
48.349.5
Auto8.3
Teleop34.1
End7.2
red by 7.1
233
#3
42.40.9
41.542.4
Auto8.3
Teleop32.2
End1.9
Second
386
#1
48.91.4
47.548.9
Auto8.7
Teleop31.9
End8.3
red by 8.0
108
#4
40.90.9
40.040.9
Auto12.7
Teleop26.6
End1.6
Third
6184
#15
16.11.3
14.816.1
Auto4.1
Teleop10.6
End1.4
blue by 8.4
8788
#23
24.51.0
23.524.5
Auto4.8
Teleop18.2
End1.5