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Red60
316415.2
1017712.8
35029.3
Blue41
878824.5
36277.6
58725.8
53%Model gave it47%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions403901020305060706041

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+11Teleop
+13Endgame
+19Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
0Leave3
2Coral scored#1
9Coral points3
9Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +8
6Coral scored#6
23Coral points23
1Processor algae#1
3Net algae#1
6Processor points6
12Net points4
18Algae points10
41Total teleop33
Reef
3L4#3
2L3#2
2L2#2
1L1 · trough#0
12Game pieces#9
BargeRed +2
4Cage & park2
4Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +19
6Foul points0
60Total score41

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3164
#32
15.21.7
10.512.2
Auto4.6
Teleop9.6
End1.1
blue by 9.3
8788
#23
24.50.3
17.317.0
Auto4.8
Teleop18.2
End1.5
Second
12.81.7
11.513.2
Auto2.7
Teleop8.9
End1.2
red by 5.2
3627
#40
7.60.3
7.57.2
Auto2.0
Teleop4.8
End0.8
Third
3502
#16
9.31.7
8.29.8
Auto2.1
Teleop6.4
End0.9
red by 3.6
5872
#28
5.80.3
9.89.5
Auto3.1
Teleop1.5
End1.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
28%Auto oddsMissed24%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
14%Barge oddsMissed26%Barge oddsMissed