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Red72
36277.6
462217.5
555723.2
Blue39
1015918.0
96274.5
457615.7
72%Model gave it28%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions5539020801007239

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+10Auto
+23Teleop
+25Endgame
+33Fouls
AutonomousRed +10
3Leave6
3Coral scored#0
13Coral points0
16Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +13
8Coral scored#6
28Coral points21
1Processor algae#0
2Net algae#2
6Processor points0
8Net points8
14Algae points8
42Total teleop29
Reef
4L4#2
3L3#2
2L2#1
2L1 · trough#1
14Game pieces#8
BargeRed +2
6Cage & park4
6Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +33
8Foul points0
72Total score39

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5557
#19
23.21.2
22.723.9
Auto5.9
Teleop14.4
End2.8
red by 5.1
18.00.1
18.118.0
Auto3.4
Teleop12.8
End1.8
Second
4622
#24
17.51.2
16.317.5
Auto3.5
Teleop12.8
End1.2
red by 1.8
4576
#34
15.70.1
14.214.1
Auto2.7
Teleop10.9
End2.1
Third
3627
#40
7.61.2
6.47.6
Auto2.0
Teleop4.8
End0.8
red by 3.0
9627
#42
4.50.1
4.64.5
Auto2.9
Teleop1.3
End0.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
8%Auto oddsEarned25%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
11%Barge oddsMissed20%Barge oddsMissed