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Red58
97205.2
96987.3
136923.6
Blue8
32429.6
63228.6
58725.8
59%Model gave it41%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions41340206080100588

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+6Auto
+30Teleop
+32Endgame
+50Fouls
AutonomousRed +6
3Leave6
2Coral scored#0
9Coral points0
12Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +24
5Coral scored#0
18Coral points0
1Processor algae#0
0Net algae#0
6Processor points0
0Net points0
6Algae points0
24Total teleop0
Reef
2L4#0
2L3#0
2L2#0
1L1 · trough#0
8Game pieces#0
BargeRed +2
4Cage & park2
4Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +50
18Foul points0
58Total score8

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1369
#11
23.60.6
22.723.2
Auto5.2
Teleop16.8
End1.6
red by 14.0
3242
#26
9.62.2
11.89.6
Auto2.6
Teleop5.1
End1.9
Second
9698
#27
7.30.6
6.87.3
Auto2.7
Teleop3.7
End0.9
blue by 1.3
6322
#22
8.62.2
10.88.6
Auto3.0
Teleop4.8
End0.8
Third
9720
#29
5.20.6
4.65.2
Auto3.8
Teleop0.9
End0.5
blue by 0.6
5872
#28
5.82.2
7.85.7
Auto3.1
Teleop1.5
End1.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
35%Auto oddsEarned18%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
13%Barge oddsMissed19%Barge oddsMissed