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Red146
190249.5
38648.9
618416.1
Blue127
10840.9
878824.5
23342.4
48%Model gave it52%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions118122050100150200250146127

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+9
+7Teleop
+29Endgame
+19Fouls
AutonomousBlue +9
6Leave3
4Coral scored#7
22Coral points34
28Total auto37
TeleoperatedRed +16
21Coral scored#12
76Coral points44
1Processor algae#3
2Net algae#3
6Processor points18
8Net points12
14Algae points30
90Total teleop74
Reef
6L4#8
10L3#6
5L2#3
4L1 · trough#2
28Game pieces#25
BargeRed +22
26Cage & park4
26Total endgame4
Penalties & totalRed +19
2Foul points12
146Total score127

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
49.51.2
45.847.0
Auto8.3
Teleop34.1
End7.2
red by 7.1
233
#3
42.40.3
41.441.7
Auto8.3
Teleop32.2
End1.9
Second
386
#1
48.91.3
44.846.2
Auto8.7
Teleop31.9
End8.3
red by 8.0
108
#4
40.90.3
39.940.2
Auto12.7
Teleop26.6
End1.6
Third
6184
#15
16.11.2
12.313.6
Auto4.1
Teleop10.6
End1.4
blue by 8.4
8788
#23
24.50.3
23.423.8
Auto4.8
Teleop18.2
End1.5