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Red91
964235.1
316415.2
547238.6
Blue86
406541.3
8639.9
58725.8
65%Model gave it35%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions99926070801101201301409186

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+5Teleop
Endgame+7
+5Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
0Leave6
7Coral scored#5
33Coral points24
33Total auto30
TeleoperatedRed +2
8Coral scored#8
30Coral points28
1Processor algae#1
2Net algae#2
6Processor points6
8Net points8
14Algae points14
44Total teleop42
Reef
5L4#5
5L3#3
3L2#3
2L1 · trough#2
18Game pieces#16
BargeBlue +12
2Cage & park14
2Total endgame14
Penalties & totalRed +5
12Foul points0
91Total score86

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
38.60.4
39.238.8
Auto10.1
Teleop25.2
End3.3
blue by 2.8
41.30.0
41.441.3
Auto14.5
Teleop23.8
End3.0
Second
35.10.3
35.535.2
Auto8.8
Teleop23.9
End2.4
blue by 4.8
86
#7
39.90.0
39.939.9
Auto8.8
Teleop23.9
End7.2
Third
3164
#32
15.20.3
15.815.5
Auto4.6
Teleop9.6
End1.1
red by 9.5
5872
#28
5.80.0
5.85.8
Auto3.1
Teleop1.5
End1.1