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Red131
904012.5
1032330.1
881742.2
Blue138
884159.6
18083.7
3%Model gave it97%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions8216050100200250131138

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+14
Teleop+59
Endgame+49
Fouls+7
AutonomousBlue +14
0Leave0
1Coral scored#4
6Coral points20
6Total auto20
TeleoperatedBlue +45
14Coral scored#21
51Coral points74
1Processor algae#4
3Net algae#4
6Processor points24
12Net points16
18Algae points40
69Total teleop114
Reef
7L4#8
4L3#5
3L2#8
1L1 · trough#4
19Game pieces#33
BargeRed +10
14Cage & park4
14Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +7
42Foul points0
131Total score138

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
8817
#23
42.21.0
32.031.0
Auto5.7
Teleop33.9
End2.7
blue by 41.5
180
#1
83.70.9
67.066.1
Auto17.9
Teleop57.7
End8.1
Second
30.10.9
23.823.0
Auto4.3
Teleop19.0
End6.8
blue by 29.5
59.60.9
49.148.2
Auto6.9
Teleop44.5
End8.1
Third
9040
#32
12.51.5
16.314.8
Auto2.1
Teleop8.7
End1.7
red by 5.8
6.71.3
13.011.7
Auto1.4
Teleop4.6
End0.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
33%Auto oddsMissed84%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
8%Coral oddsMissed34%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
41%Barge oddsEarned80%Barge oddsMissed