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Red97
362718.9
1061612.0
248658.9
Blue92
527618.6
66869.2
393253.2
60%Model gave it40%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions979685901001051109792

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+13
Teleop+13
Endgame+13
+5Fouls
AutonomousBlue +13
6Leave6
0Coral scored#3
0Coral points13
6Total auto19
Teleoperatedlevel
11Coral scored#11
41Coral points41
1Processor algae#1
3Net algae#3
6Processor points6
12Net points12
18Algae points18
59Total teleop59
Reef
3L4#5
4L3#5
3L2#3
1L1 · trough#1
15Game pieces#18
Bargelevel
14Cage & park14
14Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +5
18Foul points0
97Total score92

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2486
#12
58.90.2
47.447.2
Auto14.3
Teleop35.0
End9.6
red by 5.7
3932
#16
53.20.8
48.249.0
Auto12.9
Teleop34.1
End6.2
Second
3627
#19
18.90.2
15.515.2
Auto1.8
Teleop15.5
End1.6
red by 0.4
5276
#38
18.61.0
15.016.0
Auto4.1
Teleop13.4
End1.0
Third
12.00.4
19.819.4
Auto1.0
Teleop9.1
End1.9
red by 2.8
6686
#40
9.21.4
16.618.0
Auto1.6
Teleop5.5
End2.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
62%Auto oddsMissed50%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
8%Coral oddsMissed10%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
80%Barge oddsEarned43%Barge oddsEarned