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Red128
962714.4
674335.8
555739.3
Blue123
248658.9
761116.9
264119.8
51%Model gave it49%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions60594080100120128123

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+17
+7Teleop
+5Endgame
+5Fouls
AutonomousBlue +17
9Leave9
1Coral scored#4
4Coral points21
13Total auto30
TeleoperatedRed +24
19Coral scored#16
69Coral points57
2Processor algae#2
5Net algae#2
12Processor points12
20Net points8
32Algae points20
101Total teleop77
Reef
8L4#6
7L3#6
3L2#5
2L1 · trough#3
27Game pieces#24
BargeBlue +2
14Cage & park16
14Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +5
0Foul points0
128Total score123

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5557
#13
39.35.0
23.228.1
Auto7.2
Teleop30.2
End1.9
blue by 19.6
2486
#12
58.93.2
42.745.8
Auto14.3
Teleop35.0
End9.6
Second
35.86.2
23.930.1
Auto4.8
Teleop24.2
End6.8
red by 16.0
2641
#21
19.84.2
8.512.7
Auto6.2
Teleop11.1
End2.6
Third
9627
#24
14.45.0
4.59.5
Auto3.2
Teleop9.2
End1.9
blue by 2.5
7611
#39
16.94.2
5.49.7
Auto3.2
Teleop12.4
End1.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
27%Auto oddsMissed61%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
19%Barge oddsEarned66%Barge oddsEarned