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Red146
940428.5
547257.2
362718.9
Blue108
761116.9
74431.8
1032330.1
84%Model gave it16%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1248250100150200146108

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+18Auto
+36Teleop
+38Endgame
+38Fouls
AutonomousRed +18
3Leave6
5Coral scored#1
24Coral points3
27Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +18
15Coral scored#17
53Coral points61
3Processor algae#2
8Net algae#3
18Processor points12
32Net points12
50Algae points24
103Total teleop85
Reef
8L4#9
5L3#5
4L2#2
3L1 · trough#2
31Game pieces#23
BargeRed +2
16Cage & park14
16Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +38
0Foul points0
146Total score108

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5472
#11
57.22.0
52.154.1
Auto14.9
Teleop36.4
End5.9
red by 25.4
744
#36
31.81.3
22.323.6
Auto2.8
Teleop26.0
End3.1
Second
9404
#26
28.52.0
23.425.4
Auto5.5
Teleop21.9
End1.1
blue by 1.6
30.11.3
24.826.1
Auto4.3
Teleop19.0
End6.8
Third
3627
#19
18.92.0
15.817.8
Auto1.8
Teleop15.5
End1.6
red by 2.1
7611
#39
16.91.3
15.016.3
Auto3.2
Teleop12.4
End1.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
52%Auto oddsMissed37%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
25%Coral oddsEarned3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
31%Barge oddsEarned56%Barge oddsEarned