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Red103
393253.2
1001713.4
1015434.8
Blue214
541024.4
18083.7
552646.6
24%Model gave it76%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions10913650100150200103214

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+4
Teleop+103
Endgame+105
Fouls+111
AutonomousBlue +4
9Leave6
2Coral scored#3
10Coral points17
19Total auto23
TeleoperatedBlue +99
15Coral scored#30
54Coral points107
1Processor algae#4
1Net algae#8
6Processor points24
4Net points32
10Algae points56
64Total teleop163
Reef
5L4#13
5L3#7
4L2#9
3L1 · trough#4
19Game pieces#45
BargeBlue +2
14Cage & park16
14Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +111
6Foul points12
103Total score214

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3932
#16
53.21.0
51.250.2
Auto12.9
Teleop34.1
End6.2
blue by 30.5
180
#1
83.74.8
70.074.8
Auto17.9
Teleop57.7
End8.1
Second
34.81.6
28.326.6
Auto4.4
Teleop25.4
End5.1
blue by 11.8
46.64.8
31.936.7
Auto8.6
Teleop36.2
End1.7
Third
13.41.0
18.017.1
Auto3.9
Teleop6.4
End3.2
blue by 10.9
5410
#20
24.44.8
14.519.3
Auto4.9
Teleop17.0
End2.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
86%Auto oddsEarned86%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
12%Coral oddsMissed23%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
73%Barge oddsEarned52%Barge oddsEarned