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Red163
287262.5
858135.2
248658.9
Blue122
547257.2
881742.2
89%Model gave it11%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions16211450100150200250163122

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+28Auto
+15Teleop
+35Endgame
+41Fouls
AutonomousRed +28
0Leave3
10Coral scored#4
51Coral points20
51Total auto23
TeleoperatedBlue +13
15Coral scored#16
54Coral points57
2Processor algae#3
4Net algae#5
12Processor points18
16Net points20
28Algae points38
82Total teleop95
Reef
6L4#8
10L3#5
7L2#5
2L1 · trough#2
31Game pieces#28
BargeRed +20
24Cage & park4
24Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +41
6Foul points0
163Total score122

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2872
#10
62.51.0
57.758.7
Auto15.3
Teleop40.5
End6.8
red by 5.3
5472
#11
57.21.1
56.457.5
Auto14.9
Teleop36.4
End5.9
Second
2486
#12
58.91.0
52.153.1
Auto14.3
Teleop35.0
End9.6
red by 16.7
8817
#23
42.21.1
38.039.1
Auto5.7
Teleop33.9
End2.7
Third
8581
#18
35.21.5
31.933.4
Auto10.0
Teleop22.0
End3.2
red by 25.3
9.91.6
11.112.7
Auto5.4
Teleop5.7
End-1.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
94%Auto oddsEarned57%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
8%Coral oddsEarned40%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
91%Barge oddsEarned42%Barge oddsMissed