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Red171
881742.2
287262.5
152328.1
Blue190
10854.1
393253.2
1032330.1
39%Model gave it61%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions158166120140180200220171190

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+1
Teleop+3
Endgame+13
Fouls+19
AutonomousBlue +1
6Leave3
6Coral scored#7
30Coral points34
36Total auto37
TeleoperatedBlue +2
26Coral scored#23
95Coral points81
2Processor algae#2
3Net algae#7
12Processor points12
12Net points28
24Algae points40
119Total teleop121
Reef
11L4#11
8L3#9
7L2#6
6L1 · trough#4
37Game pieces#39
BargeBlue +10
16Cage & park26
16Total endgame26
Penalties & totalBlue +19
0Foul points6
171Total score190

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2872
#10
62.50.6
61.962.5
Auto15.3
Teleop40.5
End6.8
red by 8.5
108
#7
54.10.8
53.554.2
Auto16.3
Teleop34.0
End3.7
Second
8817
#23
42.20.6
41.642.2
Auto5.7
Teleop33.9
End2.7
blue by 11.0
3932
#16
53.20.8
52.653.4
Auto12.9
Teleop34.1
End6.2
Third
1523
#15
28.10.6
27.528.1
Auto5.5
Teleop17.0
End5.6
blue by 2.0
30.10.8
29.430.1
Auto4.3
Teleop19.0
End6.8